The early April forecast is the earliest seasonal forecast issued by Colorado State University and has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode. The skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.
Overview
We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date 4 April 2019
Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 50
Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 5
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) 16
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 2
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106) 80
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%) 90
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
AREAS:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 48% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 28% (average for last century is
31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 28% (average
for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 88-60°W)
1) 39% (average for last century is 42%)
Full document: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/04/2019-04.pdf
Overview
We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date 4 April 2019
Named Storms (NS) (12.1) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) 50
Hurricanes (H) (6.4) 5
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) 16
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) 2
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) 4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106) 80
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%) 90
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
AREAS:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 48% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 28% (average for last century is
31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 28% (average
for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 88-60°W)
1) 39% (average for last century is 42%)
Full document: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/04/2019-04.pdf