FZAK30 PAFC 212018
ICOAFC
Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
PM AKDT Tuesday 21 May 2024
...MAY 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...
Sea ice in the Bering Sea has shown significant melting during May,
though the extent as of the fourth week of May is farther south than
many of the past 10 years as it is still near Saint Matthew Island.
The 2023 break up season was very similar at this point of the
season. Much of the ice pack south of Saint Lawrence Island has
thinned significantly, but the pack ice east and north of Saint
Lawrence Island is still high concentration and not yet showing
signs of melting. Within the Chukchi Sea, we are beginning to see
signs of melting north of the Seward Peninsula.
Looking ahead through break-up season, ENSO-neutral conditions are
expected for a short period during the summer months, then La Nina
is expected to develop during late summer or early fall. We are
expecting break-up to continue to be relatively slow in June, but
really speed up across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in July and
August.
Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
For Kuskokwim Bay, the shorefast ice is slowly decreasing as small
sections of ice are breaking away from the outer edge over time. The
ice is expected to no longer be shorefast during the fourth week of
May. Sea ice within Kuskokwim Bay is expected to be sea ice free by
the end of May.
Etolin Strait is expected to be sea ice free during the first week
of June.
For Etolin Strait to Cape Romanzof, sea ice will no longer be
shorefast by the end of May. Navigational waters are expected to be
sea ice free during the first week of June.
For Cape Romanzof to Kwikpak, ice is no longer expected to be
shorefast during the first week of June. Sea ice free conditions are
expected by the middle of June.
For Kwikpak to Unalakleet, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast
by the first week of June. Sea ice concentration will likely reach 3
tenths during the second week of June and be sea ice free for the
season around mid-June.
For Shaktoolik, sea ice free conditions are expected by mid-June.
Around Norton Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast by the
end of May. Sea ice concentration within Norton Bay will likely
reach three tenths by mid-June and sea ice free conditions are
expected during the third week of June.
For Golovin Bay, ice is no longer expected to be shorefast by the
end of May. Less than three tenths coverage is expected during the
first week of June. Ice free conditions are expected by the second
week of June.
Along the Nome coast, we expect ice to no longer be shorefast during
the first week of June. Three tenths coverage is expected during the
second week of June and sea ice free conditions are expected around
mid-June.
Norton Sound is expected to decrease to three tenths concentration
during the second week of June and be sea ice free for the season
around mid-June.
For Port Clarence, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast
during the first week of June. Sea ice is expected to decrease to
three tenths concentration then be sea ice free for the season
during the third week of June.
For the Bering Sea south of 60N, ice free conditions are expected by
the first week of June.
The Bering Sea south of Saint Lawrence Island is expected to be sea
ice free around mid-June.
Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait is expected to reach
three tenths sea ice concentration around mid-June.
The Bering Strait is expected to be sea ice free to 20 nm north and
south of the center line during the third week of June.
The Bering Sea is expected to be sea ice free by the end of June.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
For navigational waters from Wales to Espenberg, ice is no longer
expected to be shorefast by the end of May. Sea ice concentration is
expected to reach three tenths during the third week of June and be
sea ice free for the season by the end of June.
For Kotzebue Sound, sea ice is expected to no longer be shorefast
during the first week of June. Sea ice concentrations are expected
to reach 3 tenths during the last week of June and be sea ice free
during the first week of July.
For navigational waters from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope, sea ice
is expected to no longer be shorefast during the first week of June.
Three tenths concentration is expected during the last week of June
and sea ice free conditions are expected during the first week of
July.
For navigational waters from Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice is
expected to no longer be shorefast around mid-June. Sea ice
concentration is expected to decrease to three tenths by the end of
June and be sea ice free for the season by mid-July.
For Wainwright to Utqiagvik, sea ice is expected to no longer be
shorefast by the end of June. Sea ice concentration is expected to
decrease to three tenths around mid-July and sea ice free conditions
are expected by the end of July.
From Icy Cape to Point Barrow west to 170W, sea ice concentration
less than three tenths is expected during the first half of August.
This area is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the end
of August.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
From Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to no
longer be shorefast during the second half of June. Sea ice is
expected to reach three tenths concentration by the end of July.
From Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island, sea ice is expected to no
longer be shorefast during the first half of July. This area is
where sea ice near the Alaska coastline tends to linger the longest.
Sea ice concentration is expected to reach three tenths during the
second half of August and may be sea ice free by the end of August.
From Point Barrow to Cape Halkett, sea ice is expected to no longer
be shorefast during the first half of July. Sea ice concentration is
expected to reach three tenths during the first half of August and
be sea ice free for the season during the second half of August.
$$
Schreck
Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
356 NOAK48 PAFC 021346 PNSAFC AKZ102-030200- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Anchorage AK 546 AM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...Anchorage International Airport Climate Highlights for May 2024... ...45th Warmest/28th Coldest May... ...58th Driest/16th Wettest May... The period of record includes 73 Mays. *** Delineates 2024 in the lists below. ...Temperature... May 2024 was the 45th warmest May on record with an average temperature of 46.8 degrees. This is 1.3 degrees below the normal of 48.1 degrees. Top 5 Warmest Mays By Average Temperature ----------------------------------------- 1) 52.5 degrees in 2014. 2) 52.0 degrees in 2016. 3) 50.9 degrees in 2022. 4) 50.7 degrees in 1981 1993. 5) 50.6 degrees in 2005. Top 5 Coldest Mays By Average Temperature ----------------------------------------- 1) 41.1 degrees in 1964. 2) 41.6 degrees in 1971. 3) 43.2 degrees in 1972. 4) 43.6 degrees in 1973. 5) 43.9 degrees in 1955. The average high in May 2024 was 53.5 degrees, which was 2.8 degrees below the normal of 56.3 degrees. The average low was 40.1 degrees, which was 0.1 degrees above the normal of 40.0 degrees. 9 days in May had above normal temperatures. 16 days in May had below normal temperatures. 6 days in May had normal temperatures (within 1/2 degree). 0 days in May were 5 degrees or more above the daily normal. 4 days in May were 5 degrees or more below the daily normal. The most above normal day in May occurred on the 1st, which was 4.1 degrees warmer than the daily normal. The most below normal day in May occurred on the 9th, which was 9.3 degrees colder than the daily normal. The warmest daily high in May occurred on the 31st, when the high reached 63 degrees. This ties 1976, 2000, and 2012 for the 57th warmest monthly high in May. Top 5 Warmest Monthly Highs in May ---------------------------------- 1) 77 degrees - 1969 2002. 2) 76 degrees - 1993 2006 2012 2013 2022. 3) 75 degrees - 1964. 4) 74 degrees - 1979 2020. 5) 73 degrees - 1968 1981 1996. The coldest daily low in May occurred on the 7th, when the low dropped to 32 degrees. This ties 13 previous years, the latest in 2022, for the 38th coldest monthly low in May. Top 5 Coldest Monthly Lows in May --------------------------------- 1) 17 degrees - 1964. 2) 24 degrees - 2001. 3) 25 degrees - 1992. 4) 26 degrees - 1952 2021. 5) 27 degrees - 1957 1963 1965 1973 1982 2002 2004. Number of days in May --------------------- High Temperature of 60 degrees or warmer - 3 days High Temperature of 50 degrees or warmer - 27 days High Temperature of 40 degrees or warmer - 31 days Low Temperature of 40 degrees or less - 18 days Low Temperature of 50 degrees or less - 31 days ...Precipitation... May 2024 was the 16th wettest on record, with 1.04 inches of precipitation measured for the month. The normal precipitation for May is 0.65 inches. Top 5 Wettest Mays on Record ---------------------------- 1) 2.18 inches - 2019. 2) 1.93 inches - 1989. 3) 1.68 inches - 1980. 4) 1.60 inches - 1968. 5) 1.52 inches - 1962. Top 5 Driest Mays on Record --------------------------- 1) 0.02 inches - 1955 1957. 2) 0.03 inches - 1978. 3) 0.08 inches - 2010. 4) 0.12 inches - 1991. 5) 0.13 inches - 2002. The wettest day in May was on the 8th, with 0.35 inches of precipitation measured. The second wettest day in May was on the 6th, with 0.24 inches of precipitation measured. Number of days in May --------------------- Daily Precipitation of a trace or more - 19 days Daily Precipitation of 0.01 inches (measurable) or more - 11 days Daily Precipitation of 0.10 inches or more - 4 days Daily Precipitation of 0.25 inches or more - 1 day ...Snowfall... 0.7 inches of snow was measured in May 2024. The normal monthly snowfall for May is 0.3 inches. Top 5 Snowiest Mays on Record ----------------------------- 1) 6.1 inches - 2001. 2) 3.9 inches - 1963. 3) 1.7 inches - 2024.*** 4) 1.3 inches - 1985 2013. 5) 0.9 inches - 1999. The snowiest day in May was on the 8th, with 0.7 inches of snow measured. The second snowiest day in May was on the 9th with a trace of snow measured. Number of days in May --------------------- Daily Snowfall of a trace or more - 2 days Daily Snowfall of 0.1 inches (measurable) or more - 1 day ...Snow Depth... The maximum snow depth was 1 inch on the 9th. Top 5 Maximum May Snow Depths ----------------------------- 1) 6 inches - 1955. 2) 5 inches - 2001. 3) 3 inches - 1972. 4) 2 inches - 1975 2013. 5) 1 inch - 1999 2023 2024.*** The snow depth of 1 inch on May 9th is the latest snow depth of 1 inch or greater on record. The previous latest date was May 6th, 1955. ...May 2024 vs. May 2023... May 2024 was warmer and wetter than May 2023. Temperature: 46.8 degrees in 2024 vs. 46.3 degrees in 2023. Precipitation: 1.04 inches in 2024 vs. 0.86 inches in 2023. Snowfall: 0.7" in 2024 vs. 1.7" in 2023. ...Daily Records Set in May 2024... Type............Date...New Record....Old Record (Year) Precipitation....May 6th....0.24"....0.23" (1971) ...Daily Records Count for 2024 (Change) [Most Recent Previous]... Warmest High....4 (00)[April 20th] Warmest Low.....0 (00)[n/a] Coolest High....0 (00) [n/a] Coolest Low.....2 (00) [February 1st] Precipitation...5 (+01)[May 6th] Snowfall........4 (00) [February 24th] ...Climate Highlights for June 2024... Normal High: 63.4 degrees. Normal Average Temperature: 55.9 degrees. Normal Low: 48.4 degrees. Normal Precipitation: 1.02 inches. Normal Snowfall: 0.0 inches Warmest June: 60.5 degrees average temperature (2019). Warmest Day: 85 degrees on June 14th, 1969. Coldest June: 51.1 degrees average temperature (1971). Coldest Day: 33.0 degrees on June 4th, 1961. Wettest June: 3.40 inches (1962). Wettest Day: 1.62 inches on June 12th, 1962. Driest June: 0.02 (1952). ...Calendar of Astronomy and Federal Holidays... Total Daylight on June 1st: 18 hours 46 minutes 21 seconds. Total Daylight on June 20th: 19 hours 21 minutes 29 seconds. Total Daylight on June 30th: 19 hours 11 minutes 07 seconds. Daylight gained up to solstice: 0 hours 35 minutes 8 seconds. Daylight lost after solstice: 0 hours 10 minutes 22 seconds. First day with 19 hours of daylight: June 6th. Lowest Solar Noon Sun Angle: 51.0 degrees above the horizon (June 1st). Highest Solar Noon Sun Angle: 52.2 degrees above the horizon (June 20th). End of Month Noon Sun Angle: 51.9 degrees above the horizon (June 30th). Increase of the Solar Noon Sun Angle with respect to the horizon up to solstice: 1.2 degrees. Decrease of the Solar Noon Sun Angle with respect to the horizon after solstice: 0.3 degrees. Full Moon (Strawberry Moon): June 21st at 5:07 PM AKDT. Last Quarter Moon: June 28th at 1:53 PM AKDT. New Moon: June 6th at 4:37 AM AKDT. First Quarter Moon: June 13th at 9:18 PM AKDT. Juneteenth National Independence Day: June 19th. Markle $$